GBP/USD Outlook – September 13-17

Employment data, inflation figures and a public appearance by Mervyn King are the highlights of this busy week in the weak Pound. Here’s an outlook for the British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.  Report from Forex Crunch

Dear fellow traders this is one story every one of us most look into if you are to succeed i trading the beast this week, enjoy your trading. 
GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The rate decision in the past week didn’t provide any excitement. We’ll now get to see if there is any justification for any moves on the rate in the near future. Probably no need for hikes:
1.    Nationwide Consumer Confidence: Publication time unknown at the moment. This important survey of consumers always rocks the Pound, despite the strange release time. After reaching a peak of 81 points, this indicator gradually dropped, going down to 56 points last month. A small rise to 59 points is expected now.
2.    RICS House Price Balance: Published Monday, 23:00. This indicator shows the balance between areas that are reporting rises in real estate prices and areas which are showing drops. After many positive months, with a peak of +35%, the figure deteriorated and fell to a negative number last month, -8%. This means that house prices are falling in most areas. Another drop is expected now to -11%.
3.    CPI: Published Tuesday, 8:30. British inflation has been above the government’s target  during most of the year. Andrew Sentance, a member of the MPC, wanted to raise the interest rates to tackle this issue, but Mervyn King, the head of the BoE, dismissed it, and saw inflation sliding back into the 1-3% target. After CPI dropped to an annualized figure of 3.1% last month, it might fully return into range now. Expectations stand on 2.9%. Core CPI is already at 2.6% as of last month and will probably remain unchanged. Retail Price Index (RPI) still high and stands at 4.8%, also lower than the months beforehand. Any figure in the CPI will rock the Pound.
4.    Employment data: Published Wednesday, 8:30. After a few great months, the Claimant Count Change, which measures the change in the number of unemployed people, dropped by only 3800 people, sending the Pound down. The fresh figure, for the month of August, will probably be better, -5800. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7.8% for a third month in a row. Note that the figure is for July, thus having less impact. The Average Earnings Index will complete the picture with an expected 1.6% gain.
5.    Inflation Report Hearings: Begins Wednesday, 9:00. Mervyn King, head of the BoE and some of his colleagues, will appear before the Treasury Committee in the British parliament. This public event takes a few hours – a long time in which the Pound shakes. Apart from talking about inflation (released one day earlier), the members of the BoE will also discuss the state of the economy and the prospects for the future.
6.    Retail Sales: Published Thursday, 8:30. This major consumer report has shown neat growth in the past 6 months, usually exceeding expectations. Last month’s excellent 1.1% rise will probably followed by a more modest rise this time, only 0.3%.
7.    Consumer Inflation Expectations: Published Thursday, 8:30. This report by the Bank of England is based on a survey of 2000 consumers. Despite being slightly overshadowed by the retail sales figure released at the same time, this indicator tends to have a strong impact. The drop in annual CPI wasn’t felt in this survey – last month’s figure showed a strong rise in inflation expectations – from 2.5% to 3.3%. A drop is predicted this time.
8.    CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Published Thursday, 10:00. Closing the week for the Pound, this survey of 550 manufacturers will probably remain in negative territory once again. A negative score means that manufacturers expect a lower sales volume in the future. The figure has been negative for ages, but it has been improving, reaching -14. It’s expected to remain at a similar level now, but it might post a small improvement.

Please this Report help make a comment

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Understanding the Basics of Currency Trading

Investors and traders around the world are looking to the Forex market as a new
speculation opportunity. But, how are transactions conducted in the Forex market?
Or, what are the basics of Forex Trading? Before adventuring in the Forex market
we need to make sure we understand the basics, otherwise we will find ourselves
lost where we less expected. This is what this article is aimed to, to understand the
basics of currency trading.

What is traded in the Forex market?
The instrument traded by Forex traders and investors are currency pairs.
A currency pair is the exchange rate of one currency over another.
The most traded currency pairs are:

EUR/USD: Euro

GBP/USD: Pound

USD/CAD:Canadian dollar

USD/JPY: Yen

USD/CHF:Swiss franc

AUD/USD: Aussie

These currency pairs generate up to 85% of the overall volume generated in
the Forex market. So, for instance, if a trader goes long or buys the Euro, she
or he is simultaneously buying the EUR and selling the USD. If the same trader
goes short or sells the Aussie, she or he is simultaneously selling the AUD and
buying the USD. The first currency of each currency pair is referred as the base
currency, while second currency is referred as the counter or quote currency.
Each currency pair is expressed in units of the counter currency needed to get one
unit of the base currency. If the price or quote of the EUR/USD is 1.2545, it means
that 1.2545 US dollars are needed to get one EUR

Bid/Ask Spread
All currency pairs are commonly quoted with a bid and ask price.
The bid (always lower than the ask) is the price your broker is willing to buy at,
thus the trader should sell at this price. The ask is the price your broker is willing
to sell at, thus the trader should buy at this price.

EUR/USD 1.2545/48 or 1.2545/8

The bid price is 1.2545

the ask price is 1.2548

A Pip

A pip is the minimum incremental move a currency pair can make. Pip stands for
price interest point. A move in the EUR/USD from 1.2545 to 1.2560 equals 15 pips.
And a move in the USD/JPY from 112.05 to 113.10 equals 105 pips.
Margin Trading (leverage) In contrast with other financial markets where you
require the full deposit of the amount traded, in the Forex market you require
only a margin deposit. The rest will be granted by your broker.
The leverage provided by some brokers goes up to 400:1. This means that you
require only 1/400 or .25% in balance to open a position (plus the floating gains/losses.)
Most brokers offer 100:1, where every trader requires 1% in balance to open a
position.
The standard lot size in the Forex market is $100,000 USD.
For instance, a trader wants to get long one lot in EUR/USD and he or she is
using 100:1 leverage. To open such position, he or she requires 1% in balance or $1,000 USD.
Of course it is not advisable to open a position with such limited funds in our trading balance.
If the trade goes against our trader, the position is to be closed by the broker.
This takes us to our next important term.

Margin Call

A margin call occurs when the balance of the trading account falls below the maintenance margin (capital required to open one position, 1% when the leverage used is 100:1, 2% when leverage used is 50:1, and so on.) At this moment, the broker sells off (or buys back in the case of short positions) all your trades,
leaving the trader “theoretically” with the maintenance margin. Most of the time
margin calls occur when money management is not properly applied.

How are the mechanics of a Forex trade?

The trader, after an extensive analysis, decides there is a higher probability of the
British pound to go up. He or she decides to go long risking 30 pips and having
a target (reward) of 60 pips. If the market goes against our trader he/she will lose
30 pips, on the other hand, if the market goes in the intended way, he or she will
gain 60 pips. The actual quote for the pound is 1.8524/27, 4 pips spread.
Our trader gets long at 1.8530 (ask). By the time the market gets to either our
target (called take profit order) or our risk point (called stop loss level) we will
have to sell it at the bid price (the price our broker is willing to buy our position
back.) In order to make 60 pips, our take profit level should be placed at 1.8590
(bid price.) If our target gets hit, the market ran 64 pips (60 pips plus the 4 pip
spread.) If our stop loss level is hit, the market ran 26 (26 pips plus the 4 pip
spread equals 30 pips) pips against us.
It’s very important to understand every aspect of trading.
Start first from the very basic concepts, then move on to more complex issues
such as Forex trading systems, trading psychology, trade and risk management,
and so on. And make sure you master every single aspect before adventuring
in a live trading account.